Final Four Eve

Who in their right mind would have thought Butler would be the one of last season's Final Four teams making a return trip? To be honest not this guy. Not how they began the season; not how the Bulldogs played in January. Brad Stevens righted the ship for the stretch run in February and they got some lucky breaks and somehow finished in a tie for the Horizon League regular season championship.

Even facing odds of taking on Milwaukee in the final, the Dawgs did something they hadn't done all season - beat Milwaukee. Guess Butler just wanted to make things interesting in getting a bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Ah yes, the tournament. The Bulldogs opened it with Old Dominion, a team everyone predicted would end Butler's season in the first round on a Thursday afternoon. Instead the Dawgs and Monarchs battled for the entire 40 minutes. With ODU having momentum and the game tied, Shawn Vanzant drove the lane, drew the defense threw the ball up and Andrew Smith tipped it in the air to a driving Matt Howard, who banked in the retrieve to give the Dawgs a two-point win.

Survive and advance I

Then the Pitt game. The Dawgs led throughout and led for the majority of the game. Pitt would take the lead late and the Bulldogs again would make a late-game surge. Down one Vanzant again drove the lane and drew the defenders. Found Smith this time, who laid it in for the game winner. But wait! Shelvin Mack and a momentary lapse of basketball intellect and fouled with about 2.1 left. A sudden victory grasped out by the hands of defeat. Pitt made the first to tie the game; then somehow missed the second - video later shows the player momentarily pausing just before his release. Howard got the ball and for some reason was fouled. The Warrior calmly made the first and missed the second. The Dawgs had advance to the Sweet 16.

Of all the games the Dawgs played almost flawlessly against Wisconsin in the regional semifinal. The Badgers made one run late in the second half after the Dawgs didn't seem prepared for the press, but in the end some crucial shots and free throws made ensure the Dawgs a shot in the regional final game against Florida.

I don't need to say anything when it comes to the NCAA Tourament and Florida vs. Butler. The Gators have found ways to win against the Dawgs in two previous attempts. In this one it seemed like the Gators were going to run away with it. Billy Donovan kept going down low to his big guys and Butler couldn't stop them. Then out of nowhere the Gators stopped going to Macklin and Tyus. Stevens played the ace up his sleeve in freshmen Crishawn Hopkins. He sparked the Dawgs from 11 down to four. Butler would eventually tie even with a chance to win in regulation. After a couple of exchanges of 3s, the Dawgs had two last defensive stands and had knocked off the Gators to again do the improbable - THE FINAL FOUR!

Unlike last time though the Dawgs go into Saturday national semifinal not the underdog. Butler wears the white jerseys tomorrow! A Final Four and the Dawgs are wearing white? That's because this upstart known as Virginia Commonwealth, which basically had to earn its way into the field of 64, has shocked everyone and one upped the Dawgs in making to the Final Four.

So what happens Saturday. I am not going to go there because this game could go a lot of ways, but I will tell you what I think Butler has to do to beat the Rams.

VCU is a hot team. A team that can come into Houston and play loose and nothing to lose because they weren't supposed to be here. Then again so could Butler, but VCU has convincingly beat four of the five teams it has played in the tournament. It's closest game was Florida State in the regional semifinal. A Florida State team Butler beat in Hawai'i back in December. Regardless, the Rams are a dangerous team.

First Butler has to solve the press - break it enough times that Shaka has to stop going to it because the Bulldogs are getting easy baskets in transition. Against both Wisconsin and Florida, the Dawgs kept getting the ball in the coffin corners against the press and it allowed for steals by the Badgers and Gators for easy layups.

Good ball movement on offense and finally getting scoring from the New Castle snipers - Chase Stigall and Zach Hahn. Get that zone by VCU to extend and open it up for the drives by Mack or inside for Smith or Howard.

Defensively, what can you do? VCU is just so quick especially at the point guard position. Rodriguez penetrates and then dishes out. One thing the Dawgs have shown this season is a weakness to rotate over on defense. The other teams the Rams have faced have collapsed down on Rodriguez when he drove and then he dished out for wide open 3s. The Dawgs have to stay put and keep the perimeter sealed.

VCU has depth too and they can continue to bring in fresh legs. The Dawgs don't have that advantage and two players in Mack and Smith have suffered slight ankle injuries during the regional and need to be at 100 percent for the Dawgs to also be successful Saturday night.

Win the boards - the Dawgs have done that in the previous four games. VCU is not that good at rebounding as the other four opponents. If the Dawgs can sustain the upperhand in this category along with not making turnovers, Butler can win this game.

But VCU again I say is dangerous - a team playing hot at the right time. A team that will take right at Butler and say "We want Monday night too" A team that still feels it has a lot to prove to the world. They have proved it to USC, Georgetown, Purdue, Florida State and Kansas. More importantly they want to take it to the Cinderella of last year - Butler.

The other thing though is can VCU still remain hot beyond the arc at 44 percent? Will the law of averages finally catch back up with them? If the Dawgs can contain the perimeter I say it will.

No score prediction, too nervous to do that. I will say this if the Dawgs play like they did against Wisconsin, I can see them winning by seven to 10 points. If VCU gets the tempo going and is still stroking the outside J with success it's going to be a long long long evening for the Butler faitful.