continuing the breakdown

Now less than 36 hours from the 12:15 tipoff of West Virginia vs. Clemson as the first game on Thursday and suddenly my picks are all over the place. I can't tell you how many times today alone I changed the picks and looked at the "experts" and made some other changes.

So let's see what I have changed since my first look at the brackets Sunday night

In the East - I still like Ohio State even though the more I look through Sagarin's ratings the Buckeyes of Thad Matta have a very tough road in order to get to Houston.

I changed the the 8-9 game in this one and went with George Mason; I am taking Clemson over West Virginia. Why? Because now they have a game under their belt and the point differential in Sagarin between these two is close enough I think the Tigers can pull off the usual 12 over 5 upset; I am still undecided on Marquette v. Xavier. I like X and think they can do it, yet something just tells me the Golden Eagles can make some noise and gain some momentum with a win over the Musketeers; everything else from the first round stayed the same.

In the second round I stayed with Thad's team to advance, by taking Clemson in the first round I changed the pick and went UK to the second round to face the Buckeyes; still like Syracuse and Carolina

Regional Semis - Ohio State gets the slight edge on this one because I believe when it comes to in-game adjustments Thad's better than Calipari. In the other matchup it's still the Coca Cola kid Roy Williams over Boeheim

Regional final - Ohio State over the Tar Heels

To the west
Can it get any crazier now in this bracket as I continue to look at it and digest it? Irving coming back to Duke really has me thinking that this team could be primed for a repeat, but I still see danger lurking because the Blue Devils for some reason lately find ways to lose in the Regional semifinals and seeing a possible matchup with Texas has me really wondering that won't be the case this tournament as well; and of course speaking of Texas the Longhorns first round opponent - Oakland really looks interesting because they have a couple of transfers you could say mask this team as a mid-major and could really be something more.

The lower half of the bracket got me thinking a little more. From a friend who is as big a numbers man as I am, I see his point about the poor shooting of Missouri and have to take that into consideration with the Tigers playing Cincinnati. So, I am going to switch and take the Bearcats in that first round game; UCONN gets by Bucknell, but come the second round I really wonder if they Huskies will be mentally and physically drained. Five games in five days can take a lot out of you. Plus compare it when Butler went over to Hawai'i during Christmas. It took something out of them as well. It cost the Bulldogs dearly I believe and forced them to play catch up during the league part of the schedule. Same thing happens here with UCONN. Those five games last week in New York comeback to haunt them playing Big East rival Cincinnati in the second round. Bearcats advance; Not sure what is about Penn State, but they really impressed me last week in Indianapolis during the Big 1(1)0 tournament. Look for the Nittany Lions to make some damage and end up in the round of 16.

If I take it for what it is right now Duke gets beat by Texas; but if I take Oakland that changes things a tad and if Irving does play for the Blue Devils that really makes things tough because I think with him the Blue Devils are one of the best teams in country.

To the southwest - nothing really changes here but I am definitely thinking about switching Notre Dame and going with Purdue; although Kelsey Barlow for the Boilers has been suspended and that definitely makes things a little interesting to wonder what's going on internally with Matt Painter's ballclub heading into the tournament.

Southeast - just torch my bracket because no matter how I pick it, it won't go the way I have it. I still think Pitt is the first No. 1 seed to go down and I believe Butler does it. Now looking at some things in the Utah State-Kansas State game, the more I am thinking the Aggies can pull off the upset and according to Sagarin it won't really be that big of an upset; thus it doesn't bother me picking that one. Wisconsin-Belmont is the other one; remember the Badgers struggled against Penn State in the Big 1(1)0 tournament last weekend. Thirty-three points - that's wasn't in a half that was total for Wisconsin. Belmont can suffocate you defensively and they come out firing from deep and average more than nine 3s a game. That could spell doom for the Badgers. We got friends who just moved to Nashville a few months ago so with that I am taking Belmont.

Lower half of the bracket - I still see Gonzaga getting through to the second weekend with wins over St. John's and BYU; but now I am backtracking on the Michigan State over Florida pick. Michigan State is usually tourney ready but thinking about it the Gators are out to prove they aren't a weak No. 2 seed. I can see Billy Donovan using that as motivation. Gators to the elite eight; the Gators to beat my Dawgs AGAIN! UGH! Billy the Kid to the Final Four for the fourth time while leading the Gators.

National semifinals - Ohio State advances if it's Texas, if it's Duke what a game it will be especially if Irving returns to the lineup; the other semifinal - Kansas walks through

National Championship game - a great game will be played, not as good as last year's - it will take a lot the rest of my life to top that one - still it will be the national championship game on as always a Monday night.